Speculating on Wheat Prices. The End-of-Harvest-Year Hunger Gap and the Storage of Chartres Grains as a Key Challenge, 1748-1790

The recurrent phenomenon of the end-of-harvest-year hunger gap and the fabulous profits made by grain producers on these occasions are part of the generally accepted conceptions of all those who focus on the functioning of grain markets. However, this conventional wisdom is now being challenged and needs to be questioned afresh. This article intends to reverse the current perspective by looking at the actors and the logic that drives their actions, and thus questions the conditions for successful speculation. By mobilising data from the Chartres mercuriale for half a century, the aim is to review the very principle of seasonal price movements, to decipher the anticipations of sellers within the framework of a harvest year and to measure their degree of foresight with regard to the future harvest. Even if the profits generated by the exploitation of the hunger gap are put into perspective, it is also necessary to take into account the risks they incur and the costs they suffer when they favour practices of storing and withholding grain for speculative purposes, the timely and systematically advantageous nature of which is questionable.